It ’s mid - September 2084 . Thanks to politicians listen to activists and scientists , we have avoided the bad of the climate crisis . You ’re enjoy a courteous cup of tea on your terrace , and then bam ! An asteroid explodes overhead . Your morning is deflower .
Alright , we let ourselves get bear aside with that phantasy ( particularly the part about the politicians ) , but a newly discovered construction - sized asteroid , 2019 SU3 , will indeed have a close meeting with our satellite in 65 years . base on the current orbital parameters , it will be within 10,000 kilometers ( 6,000 Roman mile ) from the surface of the major planet .
The chance that it will really slay our satellite is between unlikely and very unlikely , with the most pessimistic scenario giving ita one in 147 chance , while others hint that it is more ofa one in 3,600 luck . TheEuropean Space Agencyhas added 2019 SU3 to the list of speculative objects simply to make certain to rectify the measurements .
dubiety are all too plebeian when it comes to predicting the orbits of asteroids in the far time to come . For example , the date is not set in stone , with the tentative timing between September 16 and September 21 , 2084 . The estimation for the future movements are ground on 124 observations and more are needed . fortuitously , it will amount tight ( but not dangerously close ) several more time before 2084 .
So what would happen if the object was actually on a hit course with Earth ? Well , it would likely produce a fireball similar to the Chelyabinsk shooting star that burst forth over Russia in 2013 . The size approximate for 2019 SU3 put it at between 9 and 23 meters ( 30 to 75 feet ) – roughly the expected size of it of the Russian object .
The Chelyabinsk asteroid burn up high in the atmosphere , with the shockwave it produced damaging over 7,000 buildings and bruise 1,491 multitude from the glass of exploded window .
While it might not be an exceedingly grievous object , 2019 SU3 is another reminder of how much we do n’t know about the space rocks out there . It was only discovered onSeptember 23 , a few hours before it passed tight to Earth .
